Yaba Yaba

what? another blog? you must be joking.

who let the dogs out?

with one comment

As in any kindergarten row, both sides are shouting “he started!”. The sensible reaction is “never mind who started, now both of you stop!”

Of course, there’s a difference: here people are being killed. Which is why its worth looking for patterns, and trying to see if we can avoid the next round.

That’s exactly what Nancy Kanwisher, Johannes Haushofer, & Anat Biletzki do on the huff:

Figure 2. For conflict pauses of different durations (i.e., periods of time when no one is killed on either side), we show here the percentage of times from the Second Intifada in which Israelis ended the period of nonviolence by killing one or more Palestinians (black), the percentage of times that Palestinians ended the period of nonviolence by killing Israelis (grey), and the percentage of times that both sides killed on the same day (white). Virtually all periods of nonviolence lasting more than a week were ended when the Israelis killed Palestinians first. We include here the data from all pause durations that actually occurred.

Figure 2. For conflict pauses of different durations (i.e., periods of time when no one is killed on either side), we show here the percentage of times from the Second Intifada in which Israelis ended the period of nonviolence by killing one or more Palestinians (black), the percentage of times that Palestinians ended the period of nonviolence by killing Israelis (grey), and the percentage of times that both sides killed on the same day (white). Virtually all periods of nonviolence lasting more than a week were ended when the Israelis killed Palestinians first. We include here the data from all pause durations that actually occurred.

Now don’t get me wrong. This isn’t a picture of “finger the baddies”. Hamas are evil bastards, baby killers and thieves. They are just as quick to kill and steal from their own people. If they would have invested half their efforts on reinforcing shelters and stocking hospitals the death toll would have been much lower, they don’t care.

What this picture shows is a plain and obvious stratigic directive for Israel:

…if Israel wants to reduce rocket fire from Gaza, it should cherish and preserve the peace when it starts to break out, not be the first to kill.

Maths. It works, bitches.

Written by yishaym

January 7, 2009 at 3:02 am

One Response

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  1. Yishai, i am really surprised by this. what you publish above i would expect from someone who doesnt know what’s really going on. body counting is just one way of presenting it. if you really want to count it, count how many times there were attacks vs. rocket launching, suicide attacks and kidnapping attempts. what matters are the attempts not the casualty rate. if one side breaks the cease fire by shooting a rocket but only injuring some people (as they usually do) it wouldn’t be in this highly manipulated statistics. regardless of the fact, that the fact that people have been living in a 15 seconds running radius from shelters for 8 years now, children have no recollection of nights without sirens and are severely traumatized. having said all of that, i still think we could and should have done more on the humanitarian side, as well as being sincerely appalled by the pictures from gaza. all i can hopefully say or wish for is that i hope that the IDF is really doing all that it can to avoid hurting these really poor people. peace for israel, peace for palestine – down with hamas and their agenda of death.

    יוסף

    January 8, 2009 at 1:55 am


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